This is a complicated story, and even some of it sounds fairly dramatic, I'm including those elements not to be dramatic, but to explain the situation fully.

I will start a small amount of history.  I had been purchasing insurance through my domestic partner for a couple years, paying a fairly significant sum.  When her office changed insurance providers and the price went up, I realized I could do better buying my own directly as a sole proprietor.  So I found a plan which costs a little under $5,300/year.  

At that point, I was working as a consulting with the state of Vermont, providing training and technical support.  It was a lucrative contract that got killed when we had a budget shortfall.  Therefore, in May I was informed that my contract was not going to be renewed.

Fortunately, I had seen this coming and was prescient enough to have started saving money.  When my contract ended at the end of June, I had enough money in my savings to pay both my health insurance and rent through the end of the year.

This is a very good thing, because my health took a fairly bad turn this Fall and I had to curtail my work search significantly.  This story isn't about the loss of employment, but I include it to provide a full perspective on what's going on.

Many of you have heard reports about the coming Republican Civil War, which I will henceforth be referred to as THE WAR TO END ALL REPUBLICANS ("WEAR," for short)

But most of this has been discussed merely as a split between the camps of John Sidney McCain and Sarah Louise Heath Palin, specifically focusing on matters of the approach to the campaign.

But, in reality, there are several factions competing for the "soul" of the Republican Party, or at least the closest thing to a soul the party could dig out of a deep, dark, recess that's best not described in polite company.

So I've written up this handy little guide to help us all better understand who the various factions in the Republican party are, and what sides we can expect them to be taking in the upcoming WEAR.

I posted some of this back in May about the last days of the Clinton campaign.  This new edition is about the McCain Campaign.

If you study behavioral psychology, you'll learn about a concept called "the extinction burst."  

The specific example I use when I teach is this:

You've got a child who is throwing tantrums.  In the past, the tantrums have gotten the child attention, which is exactly what the child wants.  Therefore, you have been providing positive reinforcement to that child's behavior.  It's "positive" because you're adding something (attention), not because it's good.  It's "reinforcement" because it increases the behavior.

The much more effective approach to reducing tantrums is negative punishment.  "Negative" because you're removing something and "punishment" because it reduces the behavior.  When we talk about "punishment" in behavioral psychology we don't necessarily mean anything specific; it's just any act in a behavioral context which reduces the frequency of a given behavior.

But here's why many parents don't use negative punishment: the extinction burst.

I wrote this in November of 2007.  It seems that given the way things are going, it's even more relevant now than it was then.  There's a lot I can add to the mix here: gas prices; the state budget cuts which are terminating my employment at the end of the month.  But really, it stands on its own and though the details may have changed a little, they're still the same basic idea.

Okay.

So.

Poverty.

Let me start by saying that, for a lot of people, it's going to get worse.

I don't mean it's going to get worse before it gets better.

I don't mean it's going to get worse unless we elect a Democratic president.

I mean it's going to get worse.

I'm not making a prediction here.

I'm just going with the odds.

What does this mean?

It's simple.

I've seen comments here and there about how so much of the party favors Clinton for the VP slot.  Some have even suggested that this is the first real test of Obama's leadership, such as illustrated here:

Early on in the debates, it was obvious that people wanted the Dream Ticket and that the two of them had a real chemistry.

Face it-- the Democratic Party is and always has been a house divided. Obama has a chance to show some real leadership here by bringing the party together.

I've seen similar arguments throughout the blogosphere and I think they're misguided.

I've read quite a bit in various places about who is and is not qualified to be president. I.e., suggestions that Obama isn't "qualified" due to some factor or another (youth, inexperience, etc). The qualifications are actually quite simple, per Wikipedia:

Article Two of the Constitution sets the principal qualifications to be eligible for election as President. A Presidential candidate must:

• be a natural-born citizen of the United States;
• be at least thirty-five years old;
• have been a permanent resident in the United States for at least fourteen years.

Additionally, the Constitution disqualifies some people from the Presidency. Under Article One of the United States Constitution, the Senate has the option, upon conviction, of disqualifying impeached individuals from holding other federal offices, including the Presidency.[4] Under the Twenty-Second Amendment, no one can be elected President more than twice. The Twenty-Second Amendment also specifies that anyone who serves more than two years as President or Acting President, of a term for which someone else was elected President, can only be elected President once. Under the Twelfth Amendment a person who is no longer eligible to be President may not be Vice President either.

This isn't a confession.  I'm not ashamed of my choice and I'm not going to apologize for it.  But things have changed, and they've changed in ways that I don't know that I can fully articulate, though I think most of us know.  If I'd lived in a swing state, I probably would have voted for Gore, but in Vermont I had the luxury of making a protest vote.   The electoral college map wasn't going to change. Vermont was going to go for Gore no matter what I did.  If I'd lived in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico or New Hampshire, I would have voted for Gore.  I didn't have to make that choice.

After the fold, I'll talk a bit about the decision processes that go into this and why they're relevant to 2008.  For those of you in Vermont, the first few paragraphs will be familiar to you.  For those of you who don't, you'll learn some very strange things about the way we choose a governor.

In the not too distant future, all the primary elections will be concluded.  

In the not too distant future, all the results will be known.  

By then, the May meeting of the rules committee will have taken place, and we are likely to have a sufficient number of superdelegates (even counting Michigan and Florida) to have pledged their support to an established nominee who must then focus on defeating McCain.

So this is my pledge:

I will support the nominee and oppose McCain, no matter who it is.  

Though I may post suggestions and ideas as to who would make the best running mate, I will not base my support for the nominee on which running mate is chosen.

I will support the nominee and let go of whatever anger and frustration I had that that nominee was not my first (or, in my case, even my second) choice.

I will post no diaries attacking the nominee, though I may, as I've done all along, post diaries criticizing certain stances or positions.

I will post no diaries attacking one not nominated, though I may, as I've done all along, post diaries criticizing certain stances or positions.

I will not mock the supporters of the losing side (though I reserve the right to mock those whom I perceive as right-wing trolls, or anyone who will sit this election out or vote for McCain).

If I think that the nominee has a weakness among certain demographics, I will try to find ways to bridge the gap with those demographics instead of moan about how badly we're going to do among them.

I will not recommend any diaries which violate the above pledge.

Who's with me?